No injuries, no props: CFTC proposes prediction market rules

June 10, 2026 - 20:41

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has put forward a new set of rules that would restrict the types of event contracts allowed on prediction market platforms. Under the proposed guidelines, markets tied to specific sports outcomes like whether a referee will make a certain call or if a player will suffer an injury during a game would be prohibited. The CFTC argues these contracts resemble gambling more than legitimate financial hedging, and they lack any underlying economic purpose beyond speculation.

The proposal targets event contracts that the agency considers "contrary to the public interest." This includes wagers on things like game officiating, player health, and other non-performance-based variables. The CFTC has been wrestling with how to regulate the rapidly growing prediction market industry, which has expanded far beyond traditional political betting into areas like sports, entertainment, and even weather events. Critics of the current system say some of these contracts invite manipulation, such as someone betting on a specific player getting hurt.

Industry groups have pushed back, arguing that prediction markets provide valuable data and serve as a form of information aggregation. They also note that many of these contracts are already offered on offshore platforms, and restricting them in the U.S. could simply drive activity overseas. The CFTC is now accepting public comments on the proposed rule before any final decision is made. The agency stressed that the proposal does not ban all sports-related contracts, only those tied to events outside the direct control of the athletes or teams involved.